미국과 이란이 오만에서 핵 협상을 재개했으나, 이란의 우라늄 농축 중단 거부로 인해 협상 난항이 예상된다. 양측은 '좋은 시작'이라고 평가하며 추가 회담을 논의했지만, 미국의 핵심 요구 조건과 이란의 입장이 평행선을 달려 합의 도출까지는 어려움이 따를 것으로 보인다. 특히 미국의 추가 제재 조치와 군사적 압박 강화는 협상에 부정적 영향을 미칠 것으로 분석된다.
An Iranian newspaper featuring on its front page, on the 7th , a photo of Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Reuters/Yonhap News The United States and Iran resumed nuclear talks in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on the 6th after eight months.
President Donald Trump called it “a good conversation,” and Iran also referred to it as “a good start,” signaling another meeting; however, as Iran repeatedly stated it would refuse to halt uranium enrichment, Washington’s core demand, the talks are expected to face difficulties ahead. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Al Jazeera on the 7th that the nuclear talks with the United States held the previous day were “a good start” and that “at the next meeting we can establish a solid framework for future talks.” He added that the two sides agreed to hold the next meeting “soon,” and that the venue for the second meeting could change. President Trump also assessed the nuclear talks with Iran the previous day as “a very good conversation,” saying, “We will meet again early next week.” He warned, “It seems Iran desperately wants a deal,” but “if they do not agree, the consequences will be very harsh.” The talks were held in an indirect format, with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi shuttling between the two sides rather than the delegations meeting face-to-face. However, afterward there was also time for U.S. delegation members Steve Witkoff, the president’s Middle East envoy, and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet Araghchi directly. Minister Araghchi said, “We had a chance to shake hands with the U.S. delegation.” At the U.S.Iran nuclear talks held in Muscat, Oman, on the 6th , Steve Witkoff , President Trump’s Middle East envoy from the U.S. delegation, shakes hands with Saeed Badr Albusaidi, Oman’s foreign minister. Reuters/Yonhap News The meeting, resumed eight months after nuclear talks were suspended following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June last year, is being viewed as successful in that it ended without clashes or major ruptures between the two countries. However, while the United States is demanding a complete halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment, limits on the range of its ballistic missiles, and an end to support for regional proxy forces, Iran has rejected all of Washington’s core demands, leaving the two sides far apart. Regarding uranium enrichment, Minister Araghchi said, “It is our inalienable right and must continue,” adding, “Even bombing cannot destroy our enrichment capability.” He also made clear that Iran’s missile development program “cannot be the subject of negotiation.” Going forward, the key factor determining whether there will be a negotiated settlement or a military clash appears likely to be Iran’s uranium enrichment level. Envoy Witkoff in May called Iran’s uranium enrichment a “red line,” stating, “Not even 1% enrichment can be allowed.” Iran, however, is said to have agreed to cap the enrichment level at 3% instead of forgoing enrichment. The New York Times pointed out that President Trump’s insistence on ‘zero uranium enrichment’ could lead to a breakdown in the talks. Kelsey Davenport, a director at the Arms Control Association, said, “If President Trump insists on prohibiting uranium enrichment, the talks will not come together,” adding, “Iran will not give up what it views as its right.” On the 7th in the Arabian Sea, aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy, President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and U.S. Navy Central Command commander Brad Cooper observe flight operations. They had participated in the nuclear talks with Iran held in Oman the previous day. Reuters/Yonhap News Amid President Trump’s buildup of forces in the Middle East, including aircraft carrier strike groups, and his military threats against Iran, some analysis suggests Tehran may be willing to risk military clashes to gain leverage at the table. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told the NYT, “There are views in some quarters in Iran that a short period of intense military confrontation may be necessary to pressure the United States to put forward a realistic proposal.” Even if Iran suffers heavy damage, the United States and Israel would also be hit, and “President Trump has less patience for damage or a prolonged war.” Meanwhile, even as the United States and Iran resumed nuclear talks, President Trump moved to increase pressure by imposing additional sanctions on Iran. On the day, President Trump signed an executive order enabling the imposition of additional tariffs on U.S.-bound exports from countries that trade with Iran. He had stated on the 12th of last month that the United States would impose a 25% tariff on all countries doing business with Iran. The U.S. State Department also announced sanctions on 15 entities, 2 individuals, and 14 vessels involved in illicit trade of Iranian oil.